The West Portal/Inner Parkside First Quarter 2018 Real Estate Market Update

2018 took off like a shot in the real estate world.  We’ve seen this before, and I’m wondering if we’ll see it level off just as fast, as buyers get worn out and frustrated.  Last year, it took a while to ramp up and the activity continued into the fall, before it became a steady, ‘less wild’ pace.

On the west side in the past month or so, I’ve noticed a few properties on the market that should have been sold, or that I would have expected to sell for more than they did.  Given West Portal/Inner Parkside’s built-in lack of inventory, I haven’t seen it and I don’t expect this to be an issue for the short term, but I will continue to watch.  It usually becomes more evident when a property is mispriced.  Here are this quarter’s stats:

  • At the close of the first quarter of 2018, we had three active, four pending and seven that closed escrow.
  • Of the seven sold, six received multiple offers and all seven sold over their asking price.  Note the seventh sale was a ‘pre-emptive’ offer for a listing on the market, or it would have undoubtedly received multiple offers.
  • The amount of over bids ranged from $60,000 to $710,000 over asking.
  • It’s worth pointing out that the listing with the $710,000 over asking offer was also the first West Portal home on the open market to sell over $3,000,000.
  • I looked back at history to make some sense of the sales in the first quarter to see if there is a number we can expect at this time of year.  The majority of the time, the range was from 6-10.  Interestingly, in the 2013 and 14, sales reached 15. I suspect the spike to 15 was a build up of demand on the part of sellers as they waited to recover from the recession; the previous years of 2011 and 12 were as expected, when the market was heading into recovery mode.
  • Three of the seven sales (43%), were reported as all cash (no loan).  Also of note, two of them were on larger sales, confirming that there is fierce fighting for premium properties.
  • As SocketSite would say, ‘comparing apples to apples’, there were three on the market this quarter.  They ranged from an appreciation of 78% from a 2008 sale, to an astonishing 234% for a home previously sold in 2012, which had been remodeled since that sale.
  • Typically, in my analysis, I compare specific property types, sizes, conditions and locations, from quarter to quarter and year to year rather than median price.
  • From the fourth quarter 2017 to the first quarter of 2018, appreciation ranged from even to nine percent.  Nine percent was on a larger, two story home.
  • From first quarter 2017 to 2018, appreciation ranged from 16% to 23%, again with the larger, two story homes leading the way.
  • I theorize that the larger, two story homes are seeing enhanced appreciation and demand, despite their price tag, because they are not frequent in our marketplace and attract a more affluent buyer.

Eric Castongia, Broker Associate at Zephyr Real Estate (BRE Lic. No. 01188380) provided this information. The content of this article is an interpretation of data from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the County Tax Record, the internet and Eric’s observations in the marketplace.  Eric can be reached by e-mail at Eric@SFHotBuy.com, or via mobile phone at (415)307-1700.