2015 West Portal Property Values

The West Portal/Inner Parkside 2015 Year-End Real Estate Market Update

Values stayed strong on most properties throughout the year

 

 

WP street scene-2 2015 started out strong and I expect we will see that again in 2016 as a result of a continued lack of inventory and a flood of buyers coming back into the marketplace after the holidays. Although we had multiple and over asking offers throughout the year, the most aggressive and largest number of bidders occurred mainly before summer; looking back at 2015, I think our high point was July. Buyers tired out faster this year than they did in 2014. So 2015 only had one market bump; not the usual two.

After Labor Day, buyers were more fickle, largely because in other parts of the city, inventory jumped dramatically (mostly condominiums) and all of a sudden, buyers had options; sellers trying to get top dollar couldn’t get quite what they had planned. Properties that were already remodeled sold first, and list prices had to come down to get people in the door. Interestingly, at the end of the year, with most properties that didn’t sell going off the market til after the first, those that did come on, sold quickly at high prices. It’s all about supply and demand.

  • Single family homes in a constrained market kept West Portal/Inner Parkside humming.
  • The total number of sales for 2015 was 42, a big decrease from 60 in 2014 and 64 in 2013. In the old days (three years ago), the normal had been around 50 annual sales, so 2013 and 2014 were already higher than normal.
  • At the close of the fourth quarter of 2015, we had one active, 13 sold (closed) (18 at the same time in 2014) and no failed to sell properties. Of the 13 sold, 11 received multiple offers and 12 sold over their asking price. The amount of over bids ranged from as little as $10,000 to as much as $430,000.
  • Two of the 13 sales (15%), were reported as all cash (no loan); and we had 11 reported for the year (26%).
  • There were no short sales or bank owned properties on the market this year, although a few properties were in difficulties.
  • The best ‘apple’ on the market in the last quarter previously sold in 2005 for $900,000 and recently sold for $1.5m (a 67% increase). Also, a fixer that sold a year ago for $1.1m, that was gutted and beautifully remodeled, just sold for $2.325m.
  • Of note, five of the 13 sales (38%) had been owned by the same people for more than 20 years. Longer ownership means less movement and further tightening of the market; only those who have to sell, are.
  • Forgive me a little human interest. Digging around the tax record means you can find the most interesting things. One property that went quietly to foreclosure was most likely purchased on the courthouse steps and is now being resold. Another home was owned for many years by a World War II veteran, who took advantage of the GI Bill to buy his home.
  • In my analysis to determine market value, I do not use median price. Rather, I compare specific property types, sizes, conditions and locations, from quarter to quarter and year to year.
  • From the third quarter to the fourth, prices stayed even in West Portal/Inner Parkside core and went down as much as three percent North of Ulloa.
  • Year to year, homes that were either remodeled, or needed only cosmetics, went up in value between six and 15%. The upper end of that range seemed to be for less expensive properties, as the market is more competitive in lower price ranges. For properties on busy streets, or needed heavy remodeling, prices went down between seven and 12 percent.
  • Staging companies are telling me that they are booking up at the beginning of the year.
  • I expect the usual first quarter bump up in prices in 2016. Inventory dried up over the holidays and buyers will be back after their holiday nap.

Eric Castongia, Broker Associate at Zephyr Real Estate (BRE Lic. No. 01188380) provided this information. The content of this article is an interpretation of data from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the County Tax Record, the internet and Eric’s observations in the marketplace. Eric can be reached by e-mail at Eric@SFHotBuy.com, or via mobile phone at (415)307-1700.

OceanView Village Property Values 2015

Another banner year for OceanView Village

427491-23_0 A phenomenal 2015 for owners at OceanView Village; 28 owners took advantage of the market this year. All units in the complex enjoyed the fruits of the market to varying degrees.

Most enjoyed multiple offers and over asking prices, if they took advantage of value pricing, which generates interest and gets buyers in the door.

The sold prices ranged from $10,000 below asking to $82,000 over asking. Where a home fell in that range depended on where it started in list price and what else was on the market the same week. Generally, those who started high, took less. Where you were in building contributed of course; top floors, corners, good views and patios dominated.

One bedrooms saw amazing appreciation of between 25 and 39% appreciation for the year, while two bedrooms saw between eight and 14%. Two bedrooms retreated in value in the last quarter by approximately three percent, highlighting the upward pressure on the least expensive starter homes.

A surprising twist: the 669 square foot one bedrooms sold for more than the larger one plus dens in the final quarter of the year.

In the end, OceanView Village has been found, being one of the last remaining affordable condo options in San Francisco-and it’s about time.

 Eric Castongia, Broker Associate at Zephyr Real Estate (BRE Lic. No. 01188380) provided the information in this article. The content of this article is an interpretation of data from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service and Eric’s observations in the marketplace; he is available to discuss your situation or any questions you may have. He can be reached by e-mail at Eric@SFHotBuy.com, or via mobile phone at (415)307-1700.

Is Earthquake Insurance available in a condominium?

Is earthquake insurance the right thing for you?

The anniversary of the Loma Prieta Earthquake is coming up this Saturday, May 17th, 2015.  It’s a time of heightened awareness regarding earthquakes and usually pushes people to consider earthquake insurance and whether it makes sense for them.  Getting it for your home is a pretty easy thing to do, but what if you want it for your condo?  That’s the dilema for many condo owners.  Most (in San Francisco at least) home owners associations do not have earthquake insurance covering the condo common areas and buildings because it’s expensive, which would reflect itself in higher monthly home owners association fees.

I have had clients in the past who, at least initially, refused to look at condo buildings that did not have earthquake insurance-unfortunately, that limits the pool of available buildings.  In the end, you can 1) accept the buildings there are with earthquake insurance; 2) not buy a condo; 3) buy in a newer construction building up to current code and hope for the best; or 4) get over it and take a chance.  The following article was written in May of 2010, but it’s timeless in it’s message-I’ve had this same conversation with clients since I got into real estate in the mid-90’s.

Condo owners on shaky ground-San Francisco Chronicle

West Portal Property Values Third Quarter 2015

Property Values in West Portal continue on the upswing

WP street scene-2 Half the real estate community thinks the market is still roaring, the other half think something is brewing. Given the number of listings we saw come on across the city after Labor Day, some sellers feel something coming too. You will soon see that West Portal/Inner Parkside has not been impacted by this as of yet.

We started seeing isolated instances of no offers on properties citywide at the end of the second quarter and that has lingered throughout the third quarter as well.

On the most premium of properties, the number of potential buyers bidding on a property generally remained high, while those properties with a negative ding or two may have received multiple, but fewer offers; overall prices stayed up. The problem for the isolated cases where no offers were received, seemed mainly to be a case where there was an issue that was difficult to resolve, was priced too aggressively, or buyers had choices of multiple properties. As for us:

  • At the close of the second quarter of 2015, we had no active listings, seven pending, nine sold and two that failed to sell. Of the nine sold, seven received multiple offers and all nine sold over their asking price. In cases where an offer was over asking, but there was one offer, may indicate a ‘pre-emptive’ offer, which means an early offer before an anticipated offer date.
  • The amount of overbids ranged, from as little as $110,000 to as much as $505,000.
  • Comparing the same quarter of multiple years indicated that we are below the expected target for the average number of sales. I went back as far as 2005 and in the third quarter, we have typically had 13 or 14 sales. Our high in 2014 was 17 and right after the financial melt down in 2007 and 2008, we had 10 and 11 sales respectively in the third quarter. Interesting that we have fewer sales than in the depths of the financial melt down. That, I suspect, is largely why we have not seen pauses in the market yet.
  • Of the nine sales, five were reported as all cash (no loan on the property).
  • Looking at average appreciation from the second to the thirds quarters, I estimate an increase between four and eight percent; looking at year to year appreciation, it is closer to 20 percent.
  • Once again, West Portal and Inner Parkside are in their own bubble within a bubble.
  • A word of caution before listing your property, look at comparable sales and trends to establish a price in line with the marketplace and take citywide competition into consideration. Once we start seeing price reductions and withdrawn properties being more common place, that is the start of a market change.

Eric Castongia, Broker Associate at Zephyr Real Estate (BRE Lic. No. 01188380) provided the information in this article. The content of this article is an interpretation of data from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service and Eric’s observations in the marketplace; he is available to discuss your situation or any questions you may have. He can be reached by e-mail at Eric@SFHotBuy.com, or via mobile phone at (415)307-1700.

OceanView Village Property Values

Third Quarter 2015 Real Estate Update for OceanView Terrace; one of the last deals in San Francisco

427491-24_0 Luckily for residents of OceanView Village, there simply aren’t many places out there that offer the price range and accessibility that it enjoys. Contrast that with instances of no offers on properties citywide at the end of the second quarter, that has lingered throughout the third quarter-further complicated by an infusion of properties on the market after Labor Day. For those properties that received no offers, it seemed to be one of several things: an issue that was difficult to resolve; it was priced too aggressively; or buyers had choices of multiple properties.  At OceanView Village:

  • At the close of the third quarter of 2015, we had one active, four pending and nine sold. Of the nine, all sold over their asking price. Compare that to the second quarter, which had five sales; four of them over asking.
  • Overbids ranged from $3,000 to $60,000. The amount of overbids has come down since the second quarter; I think in large part because of higher list prices.
  • Across the board, values remained constant between the second and third quarter.
  • Appreciation from the same time last year seems to be between 16 and 20 percent.
  • If you should decide to sell, be sure to establish your list price by looking strategically at comparable sales and trends in the marketplace and taking geographical competition into consideration-in this case Daly City and South San Francisco. Once we start seeing price reductions and withdrawn properties commonly in the marketplace, historically, that has been the start of a market change.

Eric Castongia, Broker Associate at Zephyr Real Estate (BRE Lic. No. 01188380) provided the information in this article. The content of this article is an interpretation of data from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service and Eric’s observations in the marketplace; he is available to discuss your situation or any questions you may have. He can be reached by e-mail at Eric@SFHotBuy.com, or via mobile phone at (415)307-1700.

The last bargain in San Francisco

Oceanview Terrace is not well-known, but it could be.

A client and friend hired me to sell his condo at Oceanview Terrace.  A nice two bedroom with a patio and a courtyard view.  We got it ready for sale, and it really came out really nicely.  As part of that process, I also got to know and love the development.  427491-1_0

The development is convenient (a few blocks from BART), well-maintained and affordable.  It really was a bargain at the bottom of the housing market, while the development was going through construction defect litigation-requiring cash buyers.  That was the perfect time to snap up units if you could swing it.  Now that the litigation is settled and the association is making their repairs, financing is available and people are less worried about when and if repairs will get made. That has raised prices, as has the current supply and demand problem.

Like any larger development (this one has 370 units), there is always going to be turn over. Generally speaking, that lowers sales prices because there is almost always competition.  More first time buyers in the marketplace needing access to public transportation has taken care of that competition problem.  Nearly everything that has come up in that complex over the last few years has been snapped up, over asking with multiple offers.

To give you a flavor, 2014 ended with a total of 23 condos being sold.  The price of two bedroom units we427491-24_0nt from $475,000 in March, to the last sale in December at $575,000!  1 Bedrooms ranged from $370,000 in March to $481,000 in December.

The average price for all units sold in 2013 compared to 2014 increased 21.8%!

Prices have remained very strong in 2015.  And since it’s one of the last nice, affordable developments in SF, I see that being a selling point for a long time to come.

West Portal Property Values Q2 2015

Property values up again in West Portal in the Second Quarter

WP street scene-2 There was a little burst of energy between the first and second quarters. The market is under constant change and evolution, so one has to nimble and active to stay on top of it. I can tell you there are a lot of conversations between real estate agents to keep tabs on the trends of the market!

Toward the end of the quarter, the number of offers seem to have gone down, but not necessarily the amount of the overbids. There have been some isolated instances of no offers being received on a property, but that is not common. We can very likely blame the market changes on the start of the Summer Season, with more people going on vacations, as well as educated (and weary) buyers opting out of competing if they feel they don’t have a chance of winning.

Is there a greater chance of winning with fewer offers? Doubtful, given the amount of the overbids below. One thing seems certain; buyers who embrace the market more quickly will pay less than if it takes longer to find a home.

  • At the close of the second quarter of 2015, we had one active, three pending and 12 sold. Of the 12 sold, 10 received multiple offers and sold over their asking price. The amount of the overbids range, from as little as $210,000 to as much as $550,000. Compare this over bid range with the first quarter at $66,000 to $375,000.
  • The amounts of the homes that sold below asking, ranged from $9,000 to $49,000.
  • There is no rhyme or reason to the amount of an overbid; it is dependent on the list price, the amount of interest in the property, what has sold most recently and the buyers in the marketplace that particular week offers are due. A gut reaction to this is that list prices are staying the same or being set lower (not going up with rising prices). That may be part of the fuel keeping prices going.
  • Comparing the same quarter of multiple years indicated that we are right on target for the expected number of sales. We have ranges from 12 to 14 sold properties over the same quarter in the last six years, with only one exception in 2010 when we had 21 sales.
  • You’ve heard me or other real estate agents moan about inventory and how there isn’t much on the market. Interestingly, I think these numbers indicate that West Portal/Inner Parkside is actually quite stable year in and year out; what is different is the number of buyers; not a reduction in listings.
  • Of the 12 sales, five (42%) were reported as all cash (meaning no loan on the property); compare that to the first quarter of 2015, where one (13%) of the eight sales reported all cash. This is contradictory to what I am seeing and hearing – more transactions with financing; I speculate that cash is saved for only the most in demand properties.
  • On average across the board by house type, appreciation for last quarter to the current quarter looks like it’s up three to five percent.
  • Year to year, appreciation looks to be up as much as 11 percent.

Eric Castongia, Residential Sales Specialist at Zephyr Real Estate (BRE Lic. No. 01188380) provided the information in this article. The content of this article is an interpretation of data from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service and Eric’s observations in the marketplace; he can be reached by e-mail at Eric@SFHotBuy.com, or via mobile phone at (415)307-1700.

West Portal Property Values-Spring 2015

2015 property values in West Portal / Inner Parkside San Francisco, CA

2015 started out with a bang. We see it almost every year because of a burst of post holiday energy; it’s amplified because buyers are in competition to buy the same properties.

To give you a quick visual, I did a search for active single family homes for all of districts two and four, which cover all of the Sunset and from West Portal through to Sunnyside. There is a total of 40 homes for sale in all price ranges. That’s an incredibly small number.

Most of the inventory I have been seeing has been from people moving out of town, or passing on. There aren’t many move up buyers (who are also sellers) and I think this is a significant root of the problem to our lack of inventory. Faced with the need to sell their current property first and move into a rental while they look for a home is a daunting thought in a market short of inventory, with prices going up, competition and the need to get financing, that’s a pretty big leap of faith. Most people give up on the thought.

As for market specifics in West Portal/Inner Parkside:

  • At the close of the first quarter of 2015, we had one active, four pending and eight sold. Of the eight sold, all eight received multiple offers and sold over their asking price. The amount of the overbids are a big range, from as little as $66,000 to as much as $375,000. There is no rhyme or reason to the amount of an overbid; it is dependent on the list price and the amount of interest in the property.
  • Eight sales in the first quarter seemed very low to me, so I went back ten years to see if I could find a trend. About half the time, the first quarter has been below 10 sales, the rest has been over; given the historical data, eight seems reasonable to expect.
  • Of the eight sales, only one was reported as all cash (meaning no loan on the property); compare that to the first quarter of 2014, where five of the 15 sales reported all cash. I am hearing of more transactions with financing, so perhaps cash is saved for only the most in demand properties.
  • A few interesting ‘apples’ on the market in the last quarter, meaning properties that have sold in the recent past. One on Ulloa that sold in 2004, sold for $800,000 more in 2015 and another on 18th No of Ulloa that sold in 2013 for $633,000, benefited from a significant makeover and sold for over $1.5 million in 2015.
  • For typical West Portal/Inner Parkside homes, which have two bedrooms and a bath up and rooms down, I didn’t see fluctuation in prices from quarter to quarter. Part of that was hampered by the specific inventory we had to compare.
  • North of Ulloa usually gives us a better sample, because there are more sales in that area over the course of a year. From the end of 2014 to the beginning of 2015, appreciation was about five percent, and year over year it was about 16 percent.
  • List prices have stayed the same or gone down a bit, leaving some room for buyers who expect to overbid.

 

Eric Castongia, Residential Sales Specialist at Zephyr Real Estate (BRE Lic. No. 01188380) provided the information in this article. The content of this article is an interpretation of data from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service and Eric’s observations in the marketplace. Eric can be reached by e-mail at Eric@SFHotBuy.com, or via mobile phone at (415)307-1700.